Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Title:: Chapter I. The problem

Collection:: Economics Books

MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES changes in the level of prices, there is a relative labor shortage when employers are unable to hire laborers at wages which have been customary; and likewise a labor surplus when workmen, able and willing, are unable to find employment at what has been the pre- vailing wage. This monograph is devoted primarily to consideration of these short-period aspects of the relation of migration to labor supply, in an effort to determine whether migration tends to intensify or to minimize the intensity of the business cycle and particularly whether that phase of the business cycle most directly and obviously inimical to human welfare—the unemployment phase—is rendered more or less severe in its effects because of migratory movements. The Questions for Solution. The objects of our inquiry may be conveniently summarized in the following questions to which answers are sought in the analysis set forth in the subsequent chapters: 1. To what extent do cyclical and seasonal fluctuations in migration correspond, in time and degree, with fluctuations in industrial activity, particularly as measured by employ- ment or unemployment? : What noteworthy variations in cyclical and seasonal fluctua- tions appear when migrants are classified by sex, prior oc- cupation, race, or country of origin? » What is the relative influence of the “push” or the “pull” upon fluctuations in migration; that is, are such fluctuations primarily determined by changes in the country of emigration or in the country of immigration? What is the economic significance of the ascertained ten- dencies? The Conflicting Interpretations. A scrutiny of the scientific and popular literature of immigration reveals diverse interpretations of the effect of migration upon the fluctuations in employment which may, for the sake of brevity, be designated as the “safety-valve’”’ and the “maladjustment” theories of migration. Those who advance the safety-valve theory look optimistically upon the effect of immigration and urge that the coming and going of the alien immigrant and the alien emigrant are so timed that 26

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