Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. The pre-war quarter century : 1890-1914

Collection:: Economics Books

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY and the marked boom in 1913 find no close counterparts on the employment curve. Also the depression of 1911 is more clearly defined on the immigration curve. Various minor irregularities may also be detected, but none of these differences appear sufficient to overcome the presumption raised by the general similarity in movement, that fluctuations in the two series are to a large extent cause and effect or are dominated by common causes. When the curves are closely examined to determine the extent to which the major turns in the two curves coincide, it appears that they agree most closely when it is assumed that the fluctuations in immigration lag from two to four months after the corresponding fluctuations in the employment curve. This statement is not, of course, to be interpreted as meaning that the lag is always from two to four months. For example, the high points in 1893 and the low points in 1908 appear to be approximately simultaneous. Indexes of Industrial and Commercial Activity. The employment curve used in the above comparison is cons- tructed from limited material and, as noted, there are some relatively large fluctuations in migration, notably in 1892, 1905, 1909, 1911, and 1913, for which the factory employment curve does not afford adequate explanation. Pig Iron Production. For additional evidence we turn first to a comparison with an index of pig iron production corrected for computed trend and seasonal variation by methods described in Chapter III. In Chart 14 this series is plotted together with the male immigration curve for the quarter century 1890-1914. As in the comparison with the factory employment curve, in most of their major movements the two curves agree, especially in the second half of the period. The immigration curve appears to lag at the major turn from one to four months, although there are a number of instances, particularly at the turning points of moderate booms or depressions, where the immigration curve turns first.: An examination of the pig iron curve affords some explanation of certain immigration fluctuations which we noted as contrary to "The conclusion reached from visual inspection of the charts is supported by the mathematical computation of coefficients of correlation with various intervals of lag. When it is assumed that there is no lag, a coefficient of -+.66 is obtained; when im- migration is assumed to lag two months, the coefficient is 4.76; four months, +.72; and six months, 4.55. *With no lag assumed, the correlation of the monthly indices is +.63 + .02. 03

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