La Roumanie économique en 1926

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 175792096X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-136822

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: La Roumanie économique en 1926

Place of publication:: Bucarest

Publisher:: Impr. de la Cour Royale

Year of publication:: 1927

Scope:: 95, [28] S.; Ill., Kt., graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: II. - Agriculture

Collection:: Economics Books

{20 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 include forecasting as-a main purpose in their applied use; (c) make use of the device called forecasting by the chain prin- ciple. We say that a forecast that spans % periods ¢+1, +2, ..., t+k is obtained by the chain principle if the cal- culations proceed step by step so that when the forecast for the period #+i has been obtained (t=1, 2, ..., k- I) it is used as an actual observation when calculating the forecast for the period £+{+I. t-4h t-3h t-2h t-h Observations: O O e Forecasts t t+h t+2h Q O O “ENG FiG. 1 — Forecasting by the chain brincible All through sections 1-2 we shall be concerned with purely theoretical aspects of the three types of model. For the speci- fication of the models we shall make use of the notion of go 1pso predictor, that is: If a random variable y allows the representation I) y=f(x)+v where f(x) is the conditional expectation of y for given x, 2) E(vlx)= f(x) then f(x) is called an eo ipso predictor of y. The notion extends to vector variables y, x, v. As to the empirical treatment of 20 1pso predictors, we note that they can under very general conditions be consistently estimated by least squares regres- sion (3). (*) For a detailed proof. see Ref. 14 “21 Wold - pag. 6

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