The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1775636852

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-164018

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Knibbs, George Handley http://d-nb.info/gnd/1045010944

Title:: The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Ernest Benn Limited

Year of publication:: (1928)

Scope:: 131 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter IV. The world's cereal and food-corps and its mineral needs

Collection:: Economics Books

THE WORLD'S CEREAL AND FOOD-CROPS 49 implied by a rate of increase, and how fallacious is the common notion that the recent rates of increase of the earth’s inhabitants—given above—are by no means ominous. At the same time it has to be borne in mind that, as the earth’s population increases, the difficulty of maintaining the same rate of increase also becomes greater. torical period of the development of the human race, it was known that its rate of increase had averaged sensibly I per cent. per annum. Yet such a statement would be the wildest absurdity, for, taking this as 10,000 years, the whole of the solar system, multiplied many times over, would not make bodies for the population numbers so reached. For computers it may be of interest to note that an increase of even 1 per cent. leads to large numbers. The log. 1-017%%0° is 43-213738, that is, it is the logarithm of 16,358,290, followed by 36 noughts. The earth’s average density is about 5-527 times that of water. If we take the latter to weigh 62-321 lbs. per cubic foot, then the earth weights about 344-48 lbs. per cubic foot of volume on the average. From its dimensions it is thus easy to obtain its total mass. One finds in this way that the logarithm of the number of earths necessary to provide bodies, each of 100 lbs. weight, for the population from a couple, increasing for ten thousand years continually at the rate of I per cent. per annum, would be no less than 20°3949644, that is the number is 248,293,000,000,000,000,000, and this would be the number of earths required to provide material for their bodies. It may be mentioned that during the period 190g to 1923 the earth’s population increased from about 1679-9 millions to about 1841-0 millions, say annually at the rate of 0-656 per cent. or roughly two- thirds of a per cent. per annum. The numbers reached, if this rate, and the larger rate of 1-16 per cent. were maintained, are worthy of note. ‘They mean the doubling of the population in respectively 104-32 and 60-1 years. Starting with 1950 millions for 1928, these rates would give the following populations in millions at the dates indicated hereunder :— Date-year . . 1928 2028 2128 2228 2328 Increase, % per cent. 1950 3,790 7,365 I4,313*% 27,817% Increase, 1-16 per cent. 1950 6,179 19,579% 62,041% 196,590% The populations marked with asterisks are not possible for the earth. We see from these figures that, with the lower rate, the population would be increased nearly 14-3 times, and with the higher rate over 108 times, in four centuries!

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation