The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1775636852

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-164018

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Knibbs, George Handley http://d-nb.info/gnd/1045010944

Title:: The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Ernest Benn Limited

Year of publication:: (1928)

Scope:: 131 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter V. How population increases

Collection:: Economics Books

HOW POPULATION INCREASES 55 n the table. If, however, the curve had really har- monised with the assumption mentioned, the “logistic rates,” also shown in the table, would have been the ones experienced. When these are compared with the “ actual rates” it is seen that they sensibly differ from them. And this difference can be fully explained. Year ‘ . 1795 1805 1815 1825 1835 1845 185 Actual rates . 300 310 286 289 283 307 304 Logistic rates . 300 298 294 290 284 277 265 Year . . 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915S Actual rates. 304 204 263 227 188 191 139 Logistic rates 265 254 239 220 201 178 156 One sees immediately from the above table that the steady diminution of the rate of increase, characteristic of the logistic rates, does not really characterise the actual rates of human increase. Similar examinations of the rates of increase for France, for Australia, and for other places, also show that the assumption does not represent the facts: in other words, human popula- tions certainly do not conform to the law of growth which the logistic curve expresses, excepting accident- ally for a limited period.! This result is not a merely academic one. It has recently been asserted that the United States can carry a population of not more than 200 millions and it is not impossible that this view may have political consequence. It is evidently already reacting upon the national attitude to questions of migration, etc. The amazing deduction that the United States can never have a greater population than 197-274 millions, that it can never have more than 65-2 persons per See an article “ The growth of human populations, and the laws of their increase,” by G. H. Knibbs, in Mezron, Vol. V, No. 3, 1st Dec. 1925. Also * The laws of growth of a population,” Four. Amer. Stat. Assoc., Dec. 1926, pp. 381-98, and Mar. 1927, pp. 49~59. See also Is there a biological law of human population growth,” by A. B. Wolfe, Amer. Quart. Four. Economics, Vol. XLI, Aug. 1927.

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