The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1775636852

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-164018

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Knibbs, George Handley http://d-nb.info/gnd/1045010944

Title:: The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Ernest Benn Limited

Year of publication:: (1928)

Scope:: 131 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VI. Population as affected by various conditions

Collection:: Economics Books

70 THE SHADOW OF THE WORLD’S FUTURE quite appropriate to indicate any particular number as an actual limiting value: such a value is not unique but is dependent. Prof. E. M. East has given 5200 millions as his estimate of the limit. His cogent reasons for this figure have been set out in his work, Mankind at the Crossroads, already mentioned. These reasons are manifestly based very largely upon the assumption of a status not differing fundamentally from the existing character of our civilisation. Subject to this, it will no doubt command a high degree of assent with anyone who weighs what has been submitted in the work in question. From a review of the whole situation, and taking account of probable advances in the technique of agriculture and in industrial processes gener- ally, the limit may, perhaps, be set somewhat higher, perhaps even as high as 35 per cent. more, say 7020 millions. With a lowering of the standard- of-living it may be made higher yet; and again still higher if all migration difficulties could be completely eliminated. The following numbers are suggested as likely to be possible in the several cases indicated in connection with them, viz.: Prof. East’s estimate 5200 millions; allowing for the extension of agricultural areas and some advance in agricultural and general industrial technique, say- 7020; allowing for scientific advances more fully—this, of course, is somewhat conjectural—say ooo; and finally allowing for the freest possible migration and the appropriate co-ordination of all human effort, with the complete elimination of the jeopardy of war, so that all effort could be directed to the maintenance of human beings, say 11,000 millions. These numbers are, of course, subject to a considerable measure of uncertainty. This last estimate is equivalent to each human being occupying on the average only about 3-0 acres, and this area has to provide for his forests and his share in

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