The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1775636852

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-164018

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Knibbs, George Handley http://d-nb.info/gnd/1045010944

Title:: The shadow of the world's future, or The earth's population possibilities & the consequences of the present rate of increase of the earth's inhabitants

Place of publication:: London

Publisher:: Ernest Benn Limited

Year of publication:: (1928)

Scope:: 131 Seiten

Digitisation:: 2021

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VII. The migration of populations

Collection:: Economics Books

THE MIGRATION OF POPULATIONS 73 that naturally occurs is, “ How quickly can the world advance to such densities as have been referred to, for her peoples?” and the second is, “In what regions will the situation first become one of challenging difficulty? 2” We may, therefore, perhaps at the risk of being tedious, refer again to the significance of the rates of growth. For the last one hundred years it may be taken as two-thirds of a per cent. per annum. Assuming the world-population for 1928 to be 1950 millions, the four limits 5200, 7020, 9ooo and 11,000 would be reached in only 1476, 1928, 230-2 and 260-4 years respectively, if the rate continued constant; that is, before the following years of this era, viz., before the year 2076, or 2121, or 2I§8, or, finally, before 2188. These are but short periods in history; they are very roughly only about one- thirteenth, one-tenth, one-eighth, and one-seventh respectively of the present era of 1928 years. If the annual rate for the western world from 1906 to 1911, viz., 116 per cent. per annum, were to hold continuously for the whole world, these limits would be reached in much less time, viz., in 85-0, 111-1, 1326 and 150-0 years respectively. It does not materially alleviate the situation, either, to be told that the rates of increase will diminish as the limit, whatever it be, is approached, and that the ultimate figure will be very slowly reached. Long before that figure has been attained the population-difficulty will have become terribly acute, and it has to be borne in mind that, from time to time, the trouble about populations and their food-supplies is certain to be painfully accentuated by the inescapable vicissi- tudes of Nature. Man can cope with these to some extent, it is true, but, after all, only very inefficiently. He has learnt to modify the disaster coming upon him through a drought, but he cannot wholly escape appalling losses. Recently he has again been reminded

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