Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The role of capital in economic development / Maurice Allais, Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Mines Paris - France

Collection:: Economics Books

290 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 If I can answer to the FISHER point, I would say that the agreement between the averages for the United States, for the world and for 1913 (§ 321 and 323 of my paper) is in any case really striking. Of course there are some differences but many other factors are operating and what is astonishing is not that some small differences exists, but that these differences are in relative terms so small. And finally I would add that some of the arguments I have heard are very strange indeed. If the statistical data and my theory were in total disagreement, nobody would have said, « Oh, it is clear: if there is disagreement, the data are wrong ». They would have said, and in my opinion rightly, « The theory is wrong because it does not agree at all with the facts ». So, if there is concordance here between the theory and the facts, we must recognise that there is an agreement, and this is certainly a point in favour of any theory at all times. Perhaps it could be argued that this agreement is due co chance. I am very doubtful about such a proposition. It is juite unbelievable that such coherence between figures for the United States between 1880 and 1956 and for Great Britain or France in 1913 and for 58 values for 21 countries could arise bv chance. THEIL I am afraid that I did not succeed in making my point sufficiently clear. What I was trying to say is that in a great many cases economic statisticians have to face the problem that the data which ‘hey collect imply sizeable uncertainties. The uncertainty may either be due to the inferior quality of the data themselves, or to their imperfect relevance with respect to the variables for which they are used, or to their sample character. When there is a large range of uncertainty it is evidently rather arbitrary which particular point estimate will be published. Under such circumstances it is not at all unreasonable that other considerations are taken into account (be- sides the uncertain numerical data) when a decision has to be made irl Allais - pag. 204

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