Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Statistical tools and techniques in perspective planning in India / P.C. Mahalanobis, Indian Statistical Institute - Calcutta - India

Collection:: Economics Books

[106 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 For purposes of planning it is necessary to deal with actual figures and not merely in percentages. The population of India is expected to increase to about 650 million compared with about 430 million in 1960. (This, of course, is the population projection for 1975 on plausible assumptions, and not a target; in fact, if it were possible to bring about a reduction in the rate of growth of population, Indian planners would no doubt adopt a much lower figure as a target). The number of second lowest decile group of households in 1975 would be about 12.5 million on the basis of about five persons per household. To attain a target of Rs. 1,200 (or $ 240) per year per house- hold, the aggregate income of the second lowest decile group of households would have to be Rs. 15,000 million. If it is assumed that this group would still continue to have a four per cent share of the total expenditure of the households (*) then the aggregate national consumption expenditure of house- holds would be 25 times greater or Rs. 375,000 million.. The aggregate national income of India in 1975 would have to be somewhat larger to allow for investments and certain other items. The level of national income to be attained in 1975 would have to be somewhat more than double the target of income at the end of Third Five Year Plan in 1966. The rate of growth would have to be about seven per cent per year. Need of rapid industrialization: Such a rapid change (at a rate three times greater than that of USA) would call for rapid industrial expansion over a period of 15 years. The ultimate aim is expanding continually the production of consumer goods and services. It is necessary to increase the supply of machinery and energy for this purpose. In (*) In India the distribution of consumption expenditure of households by size of expenditure has been found to be steady (with some small fluc- tuations probably due to the effect of changes in prices) over the last ten years. The pattern of distribution of income of households by size of income has also been found generally to change only very slowly over time in most countries of the world. The assumption that the share of the second decile group (or of other fractile groups) of households would re- main practicallv the same in India in 1075 is plausible ‘151 Mahalanobis IT - pag.

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