Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Statistical tools and techniques in perspective planning in India / P.C. Mahalanobis, Indian Statistical Institute - Calcutta - India

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1113 cent, the estimated income for 1965-66 on the basis of the two- sector model is Rs. 188.9 billion against an estimate of Rs. 190.0 billion given in the Third Five Year Plan on the basis of detailed sector-wise calculations. It may be concluded, therefore, that the two-sector model can supply a fairly reliable method for estimating future in- come. Values of the parameters used for the base period are no doubt subject to errors of estimation; but this would be true in the case of other methods also. The two sector model sives realistic estimates presumably because it has reasonably correct structural relations between relevant variables. Values of output-investment ratios: Output-investment ra tios 3; and 3, determine, together with the chosen values of 2, and À, and the total amount of investment, the rate of increase of income and have an important role in planning. These two coefficients of net output-investment ratios were calculated from technological and statistical information in respect of hundreds of enterprises combined with appropriate weights. The calculated values for manufacturing industries are given in Table A 1. Need of perspective planning: Steel: The need of looking 2 long way ahead was learnt in India through experience. [ shall give one example. In 1949 when preparatory work had just started for the First Five Year Plan, a decision was prac- ically reached to increase the capacity for the production of steel from a little less than one million ton per year to two mil- ion tons per year in the course of five years. However, a care- ful survey was made of the current demand as in 1949. It was found that the maximum demand would be about 1.5 million fon per year. With marginal expansion of existing steel plants, t was possible to produce about a million ton per year within the country. Owing to the wide prevalence of the views of short-range economic theory, it was therefore decided that it would be inadvisable to include a new million ton steel plant in the First Five Year Plan of India. 15 Mahalanobis II - pag. y

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