Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Statistical tools and techniques in perspective planning in India / P.C. Mahalanobis, Indian Statistical Institute - Calcutta - India

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONGOMETRIQUE ETC. = 115. KOOPMANS We have covered a great deal of ground in the last ten minutes. But my comments really go back to our earlier discussions on the use of techniques and planning. I have the impression that Professor MAHALANOBIS is using the term « sophisticated » with disapproval, and « mathematical » with approval. I would like to express my own belief that if you look at planning from the time at which it starts off, the greatest return on economic analysis is at the early « arithmetical » stage when small comparisons and computations of the kind that have been illustrated are made; and that the time for sophisticated analysis comes later whereas the payoff to it is probably substantially smaller; I think I understand the sense in which the terms « sophisticated » and « mathematical » are used in this way and take that sense over for these comments. But I do not see this as a reason to refrain from working on sophisticated methods — be- sides having a certain direct payoff the sophisticated methods also have the advantage of introducing rationality and objectivity in the decision process, an advantage distinct from the direct payoff itself. I also have a more detailed comment about the fertilizer calcula: tion, which may illustrate this general comment. There is a compa- rison here between different ways of supplying fertilizers. These ways differ in three respects. One is timing of availability of the fertilizer, another is rupee cost, and the third is dollar cost, or foreign exchange cost, and the timing of these. Now I would submit that to make the comparison one needs not only the dollar figures that are stated here, one also needs a shadow price on foreign exchange, and a (shadow) social rate of discount, in order to make the comparison between these three alternatives. The shadow price of foreign :xchange would itself have to be determined in a wider calculation, which includes not only fertilizers but many other instances of deci- sions where foreign sources and domestic sources are considered as alternatives. In CHENERY’s work on Southern Italy (1) the shadow nterest rate came out at something like 35°, per vear. This is to CHENERY and KRETSCHMER, « Econometrica », 1950 05-99 -5 Mahalanobis 11 - pag. 3,

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