Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1147 will be discussed in some detail below, are the factors that con- tribute to the decline in the relative importance of agriculture. These factors resvlt in an increase in output per unit of input in agriculture; combined with the lower income elasticity of demand, subject to the conditions noted above, relative labor employment in agriculture will decline. As real per capita income increases, the rate of the transfer of labour out of agriculture required to maintain an equilibrium in returns to farm and nonfarm labor will almost certainly increase. One reason is that the disparity between the income slasticities of demand for farm and nonfarm goods increases. À second reason is that the change in ratio of output per unit of input in agriculture is more likely to approach the change in the ratio in the nonfarm sector as agriculture becomes more commercialized and the quantity and variety of producer goods available to agriculture increase. There is no reason to believe that there are any forces to halt the decline in the share of labor employed in agriculture. There is only one industrial country, the United Kingdom, for which there is any evidence that the percentage of total employ- ment in agriculture has been approximately stabilized for any period of time. Since the mid-thirties approximately 59% of ‘he total labor force has been engaged in agriculture. But during that period, the government has followed a conscious policy of inducing an increase in agricultural output. It is almost certain that in the absence of that policy relative farm smplovment would have declined. B. Economic Development and the Demand for Agricultural Products It is unfortunate but apparently true that the growth of demand for agricultural products is likely to be greater during the early stages of economic development than during the later 5] Johnson - pag.

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