Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

1148 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 stages. Two factors that affect the demand for agricultural products are responsible for this — population growth and the income elasticity of demand. One of the well known effects of the early stage of economic growth is a decline in mortal- ity. The improvement of sanitation, the availability of medi- cines and medical facilities, the improvement of the quantity and quality of the food supply, the reduction in famines due to improved transportation, and the control of certain endemic diseases have a significant and short run effect upon death rates, especially of infants and children. There is almost nothing that occurs during the early stages of economic development that has an effect on fertility. Thus there is a very strong proba- bility that the rate of population growth will be higher during the early stages than in the later stages of economic develop- ment and that at a given time higher for low income countries than for high income countries (1). It has been noted above that the income elasticity of de- mand for food is higher at low than at high income levels. Thus if a high and low income country have the same growth rate of per capita income, the income effect on demand will be sub- stantially greater for the latter than for the former. The two effects are illustrated by Table 1, which presents certain projec- ‘ions made by FAO for a period of roughly a decade. The estimates of population increase are relevant to the comments made above. The three low income areas have (!) This statement is based on the assumption that the growth in food output is enough to sustain the growth in population. If the conditions implied by a Malthusian model of economic growth apply, the growth of population will depend upon the growth of food output. The statements in the text about the relationship between population growth and income levels are admittedly very crude and approximate gene- ralizations. Obviously there are many factors that influence population growth. The difference in population growth rates in Western Europe and the United States can not be explained by the difference in the level of per capita income. An interesting article by IRMA ADELMAN (An Econo- metric Analysis of Population Growth, « American Economic Review », vol. LIII, No. 3, June 1063, 314-30) provides some support for the view expressed in the text 16] Johnson - pag. 8

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