Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE Etc. 1155 of extracting such savings from agriculture, through taxes, cents, low prices or forced deliveries at nominal prices, is clearly a factor in the incentives available to farm workers. In my opinion, the relatively poor output performance of agri- culture in the Soviet Union from 1928 through 1953 was due lo ineffective and insufficient incentives imposed by a combina- tion of the price structure, forced deliveries and institutional arrangements. On the other hand, during the late nineteenth century Japan apparently transferred significant amounts of savings from agriculture to the rest of the economy and still achieved rapid modernization of agriculture and output growth. Thus it is probable that not only the total amount of savings extracted from agriculture, but the method of extraction is im portant in determining output responses. A part of the support for land reform in underdeveloped areas is the hope that reform will lead to an improvement in the incentive structure and thus to increased investment in agriculture and greater interest by the farm operator in in- creasing output. Some land reforms seem to have achieved this result (the short lived reform in the Soviet Union after World War I and the post World War II reforms in Japan and Taiwan), but many others appear to have failed to have any significant effect. The increase in the ratio of output to input, which is a measure of the effect of the change in quality of inputs as well as of technological change, makes it possible to transfer labor from the farm to the nonfarm sector. Rapid economic growth requires such a transfer. However, rapid economic growth does not require an absolute decline in farm population or farm employment. If farm employment is to be stable in an absolute sense, the annual change in the ratio of output to input in agriculture in low income countries must be a very large change if population and income growth per capita are of the order of 2% per annum. In this situation the increase in 16] Johnson - pag. 15

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