Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

156 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 demand for farm products (assuming little international trade) will be about 3.5% per annum. Even if half of the increased output is due to increased quantities of nonlabor inputs, the ratio of output to input must increase by about 1.5%, each year. This implies a doubling of the output-input ratio in about 45 years; in the last 50 years the output-input ratio has increased by about 75% in the United States. I should hasten to add that it is not essential for the absolute level of farm employment to remain stable during the early period of industrialization. The usual pattern has been for the farm labor force to increase absolutely for several decades after per capita incomes have started to increase. In fact, if an economy starts from a position of, say, 80% of its labor force engaged in agriculture and if total population is increas- ing by 29%, per annum, it would be nearly impossible for non- farm employment to absorb all of the increase in labor force. Under these assumptions, the nonfarm labor force would have to grow at a 10% annual rate or double about every 7 years (!). In this section I have tried to indicate briefly some of the interrelationships between the supply of agricultural products and the process of economic development. It has been indicat- ed that an improvement in the output-input ratio is required before rising per capita incomes can be achieved in a low income area. It has also been indicated that if population growth is moderate or high and the income elasticity of de- mand is high that the increase in the output-input ratio must be a significant one if agriculture is not to act as a restraint on economic growth. It also was indicated that while farm employment must decline as a share of total employment, it may increase absolutely during the early period of industrial- ization. (') Such a growth cannot be said to be impossible; between 1926 and 1934 the annual increase in nonfarm emolovment was about 09% in the Soviet Union 16] Johnson - pag. 16

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation