Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

1174 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 In his March, 1962 speech KRUSHCHEV also noted that the deliveries of certain farm machines declined substantially be- tween 1957 and 1960. However, there appears to have been a substantial increase in farm machinery production since 1960 - perhaps by 50%. C. General Comment It is fairly obvious from the above brief discussion of projections, goals, and performance that much remains to be achieved before specific projections of output and consumption are to provide an adequate base for development plans. It can be argued, of course, that either inadequate analytical and statistical methods were used or that the goals were politically motivated. Such an argument could be correct, but it implies that more adequate methods are available and could be applied in specific cases and that the political elements can be eli- minated. IV. SOME ANALYTICAL AND STATISTICAL PROBLEMS For short periods of time, say three to five years, it ap- pears that fairly accurate projections of changes in the demand for agricultural products are possible. However, even this statement must be qualified to exclude such effects as the Ko- rean War or a significant change in the policies of other im- porters or exporters where international trade is involved. Projections of changes in output or of the effect of specific policy measures upon output are subject to much greater uncer- tainty. Even if we exclude the problems that may arise be- cause of climatic variations, other determinants of output do not appear as yet to be subject to reasonably adequate projec- 16] Johnson - pag. 34

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