Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

[182 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 households in ascending order of level of living, as measured, roughly, by per capita consumption expenditure, and dividing the sample (or the estimated population) into a suitable number (say, 100, 50, 25, 20, 10 etc.) of groups, called « fractile groups » each consisting of the same number of percentiles (1%, 2%, 4%, 5%, 10% etc.) of the sample, and then finding elasticities in terms of the fractile groups. These elasticities (or their ratio) seem to be fairly steady; by putting in current prices one can then immediately get income-elasticities in money term at any point of the range. Some interesting points have come out in India about the pattern of change of consumption (in physical or money terms) of certain commodities with increasing levels of living as measured by the per capita consumption expenditure. For certain commodities this pat- tern is quite different in urban and rural areas; for example, for foodgrains. The interesting point is that, over a period of 10 years, the pattern of consumption of foodgrains in urban areas and the pattern in rural areas have been entirely different, but both have remained practically steady. With the increase of income (in the sense of national income or of households) in a country like India which is very poor, or with an improvement in the supply position of foodgrains, the per capita average consumption of foodgrains of the whole population may go up or some times, with increasing prices, may go down, but the pattern remains the same. Of course we are interested in this, particularly from the point of view of inequalities. The National Sample Survey of India, which covers the whole of India, has at least two inter-penetrating sub-samples giving two in- dependent estimates; and also, of course, a combined estimate by pooling the sub-samples. Using a graphical representation (in the form of distribution of per capita consumption, or concentration cur- ves or in other ways) the difference between the curves based on the two sub-samples gives a non-parametric and completely invariant error area with which the analysis can be carried very far; I discussed it in another paper. From our own experience I fully agree with the points made by Prof. Jonson in his paper. As regards the supply position, I think in an underdeveloped 16] Johnson - pag. 42

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