Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

1184 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA shipping of both raw jute and manufacture and changes in stock in the hands of jute mills; the production and utilization figures were in agreement within a margin of about 2 per cent. Although such an objective method can be used, the so-called « official » estimates of foodgrains in India are based on the perfectionist theory of figures being obtained for every field in the village; because this is a so-called complete enumeration, and because such a system has been in use for centuries, therefore it has high legal status like custom immemorial; and also no independent check should be per- mitted, because it would be confusing if the results of such a check differed from the official estimate. So the point stated by Mr. JOHNSON is well taken and extremely important. It also raises the question whether a lot of sophisticated acrobatics on econometrics on the basis of such unreliable statistics in the underdeveloped coun- ‘ries would not be a complete waste of scarce resources. I entirely agree that without progress of agricultural output no rapid economic development is possible. I do not clearly understand the last paragraph at the end of page 37 «I do not believe that projections that can now be made possess the necessary degree of accuracy to make it feasible to rely upon detailed planning procedures which largely supplant the operation of the market ». I understand what this sentence means, but on the other hand, I take it that the next paragraph is making out a case for State intervention. I find a little gap here. Can you always leave it to market operation as such in an underdeveloped country? I should strongly differ. In my own country in 1943, during the war, because of that particular doctrine (I may mention that the Economic Adviser of Government at that time was Dr. GREGORY, the author of a standard book on the Gold Standard) there was no attempt at any control or rationing of foodgrains with the result that a famine broke out in Bengal. An official commission appointed by the British Government found that ome and a quarter million people had died directly from famine, which is about twice the total casualties of the U.S.A. and U.K. taken together during the Second World War. This happened. Therefore, I do believe that government intervention is essential but should be a minimum. 16] Johnson - pag. 44

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