Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 73 minary calculations described in [5] we found that the in- creases of output required of our thirty-one industries during the decade of the 1960’s varied from zero to over 100%. Apart from the allowance, already mentioned, for a trend projection in the prices of the main groups of private con- sumption, the estimates were all made at 1960 prices. In other words, only one cycle of calculations was made. We did not calculate shadow prices for 1970 and allow these to modify the composition of consumption or the technical coefficients of production. We plan to do this as soon as our production functions are readv for use. e) The industrial distribution of labour. These calcula- tions were based on (IV. 10). We first estimated the labour force available to our thirty-one industries in 1970, starting from official projections of the total labour force [49]. We allowed for 1.5%, of unemployment and for government de- mands in line with our estimates of government expenditure on different purposes. The result was a 5% increase in labour available over the decade compared with a 50%, increase in output. In applying (IV. 19) we took the increases in output at 1960 prices, already calculated, to represent pAy. We based our estimates of the initial rates of return, r*, on the experience of the period 1948-1960, subject to a minimum rate of return of 5%. We estimated investment in fixed assets over the decade, v*, as five times the sum of the 1960 level and the 1970 level, the latter being obtained by adding together our estimates of industrial replacements and extensions. We estim- ated the industrial real-wage rates over the decade, w, by increasing the 1960 wage rates in the different industries by one half of the increase in labour productivity required over the decade in industry as a whole. On this basis, the total labour demanded was 49%, in excess of the estimated supply .] Stone - pag. 71

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