Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. _-93 duction functions are key areas of theoretical and applied work where econometric methods have been well established for a long time and where they are in every day use both at micro and macro level. Macro problems, again speaking broadly, are on the whole more complex and difficult, and the econometric methods are here far from having the firm grasp on the problems as at the micro level. The theme of our Study Week is an inspiring challenge to report on the present status of econometrics in the treatment of economic growth and business cycles, the two major areas of macro analysis. It is safe to say that as the avenues of quantitative ana- ‘ysis and econometric techniques have broadened in these areas, it nas gradually become more and more clear that the two groups of problems involve a highly complicated network of interrelated phenomena, the conclusion being that the problems are not ame- nable to simple and easy solutions. The spearheads of research and applied work have moved forward in significant steps, marked by successful attacks on a number of partial problems, but I think everybody will agree that the successes have as yet only been partial. More specifically, no integrated model of business cycles or economic growth has as yet been reported which has been successful in the qualified sense of passing the purgatory of a strict predictive test (see the third section in my report « Toward a verdict on ma- “roeconomic simultaneous equations » to the Study Week). Well to note, the emphasis of this statement is not on the shortcomings of existing models — personally I am convinced that the road is well paved for continued progress, and the goal of reliable predictions will be reached in due course — on the contrary, the emphasis is on the partial results thus far established. It seems to me that eco- nometrics by now has reached an intermediate stage between micro and macro. Micro analysis is well consolidated with regard to pro- blems, methods and results; Professor JoHNSON’s brilliant report 's ample evidence that econometrics is now mastering macro ana- lysis in the sense of economy-wide approaches, and it is appro: priate to see this as an intermediate level of macro analysis since ne is dealing with the agricultural sector, thus making a partial and ‘16] Johnson - pag. 53

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation