Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Econometric analysis and agricultural and development plans / D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago - Chicago - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 1195 of view of his immediate objectives, but which might be in conflict with different but possibly equally important objectives pursued si: nultaneously by other policy makers. The principal advantage of general planning and overall projec- sions, as compared with haphazard promulgation of special purpose policy measures, is that it permits us to avoid such conflicts, Special purpose models which permit us to estimate the principal. or should I say, most desired effects of one particular policy measure but slurs over its secondary repercussions is too blunt an instrument. Consistent policy formulation requires general purpose, which is es sentially general equilibrium models. JOHNSON I think there are only three of the statements that necessitate a response from me. The first was Prof. HAAVELMO’s question, asking whether the research needed would be somewhat different for areas of low density than high density populations. I would argue the difference would be fairly small and the reason is the following: in the low density areas, which include large parts of South America and Africa, an expansion of output which is based upon using addi- ‘ional land which can be brought into cultivation without any change in technology will not lead to any significant increase in per capita tevels of income. In my paper I described what happened in the United States from 1820 to 1860, when the U.S. clearly had low- density of population; agricultural output grew rapidly but as near as we can tell output per worker changed very little in agriculture; and also, although this does not necessarily follow, this was a period when per capita income in the United States did not increase to any signi- ficant degree. But to repeat, I would say that in the low population density countries they also need substantial increases in productivity per man and per acre and that many of the factors that are crucial to prevent a decline per capita income in the high density countries also apply there. v, Johnson - pag. 55

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