Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 2 This suggests either that more capital would be needed in 1970, or that investment through the 1960’s would have to average more than the arithmetic mean of the initial and terminal years, or that initial rates of return in the 1960’s would have to be a little higher than in the 1950’s. We did not attempt to resolve these questions in [5] but simply increased by a constant proportion the initial rate of return in each industry, thus changing the allocations of labour until, in total, they were equal to the supply. From these calculations we obtained preliminary estimates of the changes required in the distribution and productivity of labour during the 1960’s. We found that virtually the whole of the increase in labour would be absorbed by the distributive and service trades, leaving a stationary labour force to be shared by the rest of industry. The calculated increases in productivity varied widely from industry to industry. On the whole they were higher than in the 1950’s but often not sen- sationally so; in some cases they were lower. We propose to discuss these estimates with outside experts as opportunity arises, but we shall not go out of our way to do this until our work on production functions is complete. f) Changes in the spectrum of skills. The work we have done so far on this subject is described in [5] [6]. We have divided the labour force into three main functions, managerial, clerical and technical, and have subdivided the last of these into five categories, qualified manpower, technicians, crafts- men, operatives and unskilled. From the census of population of 1951 we can estimate the number of men and women in each of these seven classes for each of our thirty-one industries and for government services. For 1961 the census results are not yet available and so we have made provisional estimates based on statistics of unemployment and vacancies. In making these estimates, we have tried to allow for the economic fluc- t] Stone - pag. 72

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