Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Selection and implementation the econometrics of the future / Ragnar Frisch, Universitetet i Oslo - Sosialøkonomisk Institutt - Oslo- Norge

Collection:: Economics Books

(222 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 2¢ With regard to Prof. DorFMAN’s intervention I believe I got the sense of what he said when he compared my approach with his own. He would rather prefer to take as a starting point some sort of optimal solution, and then subsequently proceed to a discussion with the politicians perhaps using a sort of iterative procedure in this discussion. On this score there is, I think, a very little difference between Prof. DORFMAN’s point of view and mine. It is simply a question of how best to shape the interviewing technique. Prof. DorFMAN also mentioned the possibility of presenting dif- ferent described alternatives to the politician and letting him choose between them. Possibly, that is not precisely Professor DorFMAN’s point of view, but it is certainly the point of view of somebody else around this table. So I think it merits being drawn into our discussion. This is a very natural view point, a very simple one. The idea is that the experts should work out different alterna- tives. These alternatives should be listed on a big sheet of paper or perhaps each alternative on its own sheet of paper. And then all these sheets of paper should be put on the politicians table and the scientific expert should say: « Now, please, out of these alternatives choose the one you like. » To me, this is an absolutely impossible procedure and I will explain why. You can use this method if you have a very very small model with two, three or four variables, because then the aumber of possible alternatives is so small that the situation can be grasped. But if you have a real programming problem with hundreds of variables and thousands of possible alternatives, as you will have for instance in an under-developed country that strives towards in- dustrialization with a long list of investment projects, you will find that the method of listing alternatives can produce nothing but com- plete confusion. You would simply be facing what an expert mathe- matical programmer would call information death. You would be killed by the amount of information. You must proceed in another way, you must proceed in such a way that the computing machine takes over the task of keeping :race of all the alternatives. If you are going to do that, there is 17] Frisch - pag. 26

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