Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Selection and implementation the econometrics of the future / Ragnar Frisch, Universitetet i Oslo - Sosialøkonomisk Institutt - Oslo- Norge

Collection:: Economics Books

1228 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENWNTIARVM SCRIFTA VARIA - 28 The politician will not even understand what is an admissible region. You must put up to him some questions that are much simpler. [hese simpler things are precisely what is included in the interview technique I have suggested. Prof. Worp, in the first part of his intervention, was so much in line with my own thinking that there is no need for me to go into that question at all. Subsequently Prof. WoLD mentioned the deterministic approach as compared to the stochastic approach. As I have said, I am abso- lutely in agreement with him on the ultimate need for introducing ‘he stochastic viewpoint. WoLD rather had the feeling that we had to introduce the stochastic viewpoint already from the beginning. Then he said that if we don’t do that our analysis won’t be a dash forward but rather a dash backwards. My answer is: if we try to introduce the stochastic viewpoint from the beginning in these immense models we are facing an impossible task. There will be no dash at all, whether forward or backward. The minimum factor at this stage is a technique of handling a great number of variables. Re- garding the ultimate goal there is complete agreement between Prof. WorLp and myself. Ultimately we will need multivariables techniques combined with probability theory. LEONTIEF mentioned a very important point. He spoke about olack markets. There is always a danger of developing black-mar- kets or grey markets. Particularly so if you stick to the traditional money economy with prices that move according to where the wind blows. If there is an excess supply, the prices decline, and if there is an excess demand the prices rise. And that is that. If you use some sort of price regulations, you are bound to encounter a ten- dency forward grey markets and black markets. My answer then will be this: In the first place, you must remember that I am not speaking about trading prices in the ordinary monetary sense. Cer- tainly you must have money to buy the small everyday things, but this after all is a minor problem. I am speaking about the accounting medium derived from the selectionally optimal prices to be applied to the big questions of influencing the policy of individual plants, and 17] Frisch - pag. 32

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