Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: The analysis of economic systems / Richard Stone, Cambridge University - Cambridge - Great Britain

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 03 in the entire domain of natural and human sciences, the treatises of philosophy of science have very little if anything to say about the general principles of model building. It is not my intention to give here a general review of the prin ciples of model building. My main point is to emphasize a funda- mental distinction between three aspiration levels in scientific model building. The first is fact finding, the second is understanding, the third is prediction. Correspondingly, we may talk about (1) descriptive moc (2) explanator. a: (3) forecasting moc. Fact-finding answers questions of the type: « What has happen- ed? » The answers are given by observed actual facts, and the observations are organized in a more or less systematic fashion into a descriptive model. Explanatory models answer questions of the ‘ype « Why has it happened? » Speaking broadly, the answers in- volve an element of causal inference, and the model makes a joint construct of theoretical analysis and empirical observation. Forecast- ing models answer questions of the type « What will happen? » Explanatory models are based on past experience, and when such a model is used for prediction it constitutes a forecasting model. The three types of models thus represent stages of scientific evo- lution towards higher aspiration levels. If we examine the various branches of scientific endeavour from this point of view, we find that there are great differences. Some sciences stride along happily at the level of fact-finding and description. Others have succeeded to assess a stable causal pattern in the observed facts, thereby ascending to the level of reliable explanatory models. Still more advanced are the sciences where the explanatory models are reliable enough to provide valid forecasts of future events. Economics and econometrics, I believe, have reached this third stage rather recently. The situation is far from uniform. Certain areas of economics are well covered by reliable explanatory and fore- [1] Stone - pag. 91

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