Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

(16 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 1943). The literature of the area is large and rapidly expand- ing. The high goals of macroeconomic model building, that much is now clear, are an important incentive for the develop- ment of new techniques in quantitative economic analysis. Thus in the short period of 25 years it has become manifest that macroeconomic model building is a mighty challenge to econometric method. At the same time it has emerged as a significant factor in the long range scientific evolution. It is appropriate to evoke the long range perspective if we call to account in the challenge, asking for the results thus far obtained in macroeconomic model building. Immediate bene- fits of an indirect nature have often and rightly been emphas- ized, including the build-up of knowledge about macroeconomic facts, the improvement of statistical data-collection, and the training of new cadres of econometricians in theoretical and applied work, all of which are tangible boons that cannot be overrated. As to direct results in the form of forecasts and other types of operational inference from the models, the horizon is eagerly watched for signals of progress. On this score the outlook is more undecided, and leading authorities have voiced scepticism and disappointment about the reported achievements. A symptomatic feature is the recent symposium in Econometrica (!) with the motto « Simultaneous equation systems: Any verdict yet? » But here patience is in order, for, to repeat, 25 years is a short time to master the tremendous tasks at issue. The Study Week, a most felicitous initiative of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, provides a forum for unprejudiced ap- praisal of ends and means, aspirations and actual achievements in macroeconomic model building. The timing of the Study Week could not have been better. There is plenty of progress in the many avenues of scientific research and development that run together in a fullfledged macroeconomic model. On (1) Econometrica, October 1960, Refs. 6 and 7. Cf. also Refs. 8 and o. 21 Wold - pag. 2

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