Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 145% a long time, as witnessed by the debate on « the choice of regression » in the 1920’s and 1930’s. Such is also the situation in multirelation systems with regard to predictive inference from the primary form and the reduced form. In VR-systems this dualism does not arise since the two forms coincide; in CC-systems both forms can be specified in terms of eo ipso predictors thanks to the substitutional design of the primary form; but the design of ID-systems is too general to allow this bi-expectational specification. The situation makes a genuine dilemma for the ID-approach, for if the primary form with its behavioural relations cannot be specified in terms of eo ipso predictors and thereby as cause-effect relations subject to ran- dom disturbance, the operational meaning of the entire mode! comes in doubt. The dilemma of ID-systems is reflected in the debate on the rationale of « simultaneous equation systems » in the 1940’s and 1950’s. In hindsight, what has made the controversial and partly confused debate on « the choice of regression » and « simultaneous equation systems » so persistent is the old and strong tradition of deterministic model building in economics, combined with the fact that empirical treatment of the models and thereby the need for their stochastization came into the picture at a relatively late stage. In the research literature the need for stochastic models was fully recognized in the early 1930’s, but in economic textbooks the deterministic models still dominate the scene. Specific reference is made to the determi- nistic cobweb model of 1930, in the simplest case given by (4) 55a-c) supply relation demand relation instantaneous equilibrium (*) See M. EzEKIEL (1938) for an excellent review. Cf also H. SCHULTZ 1938), pp. 77-80 21 Wold - pag. 20

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