Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

152 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 4. and the number of models is rapidly increasing (¥). The models are huge and complex systems, with scores of relationships, and up to hundred or more variables, and often with shifts of emphasis in the design that render it difficult or impossible to make comparative studies on a theoretical basis. In this situa- tion predictive tests are at a premium because they bring the models on the same line in comparing the forecast performance. In the present stage of development the need for predictive testing is especially urgent. Once a model is in permanent use the ensuing forecasts will in due course automatically give ma- terial for predictive tests. As yet, however, very few, if any, of the published models are going concerns, and therefore it takes a nonautomatic decision — not to speak of the courage — to plan and carry through predictive tests. In view of their key importance I wish to make a plea for the systematic use of predictive tests in the construction of dynamic macroeconomic models. This last section of my report will have fulfilled its main purpose if it can stimulate to a joint move in this direction by the participants of the Study Week. In making this plea I wish to emphasize that the entire area of dynamic model building is as yet in an early stage of deve- lopment. It is perhaps too early as yet to expect forecasts that look neat in the sharp light of a predictive test. So much the more pressing, however, is the need for predictive tests for the guidance of research in the many branching complexi- ties of macroeconomic model building. 3.1. The pluralism in model building for different purposes. The rest of this report takes up some few specific aspects of the techniques of predictive testing. The various questions (*) The many-faceted and rapid developments are well pictured in M. NEr- LOVE’s survey, Ref. 40 [21] Wold - pag. 38

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