Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Toward a verdict on macroeconomic simultaneous equations / Herman O.A. Wold, Universitets Statistika Institution - Uppsala - Sverige

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 171 anc (B' when defined as a bi-expectational system. We see that an inter dependent system when written in the classic form (A) has the same numerical parameters as the corresponding bi-expectational sy- stem (B). Hence the problem of parameter estimation is precisely the same for the two versions of the model, Professor FISHER’s reference to the pioneering work of J. F MUTH, « Econometrica » 29 (April 1961), is greatly appreciated. MuTH’s hypothesis of rational expectations opens up vistas towards highly fruitful syntheses by assuming that expectations in the eco- nomic-psychological sense are in the first proxy equal to expecta- tions in the sense of probability theory. In the context of my paper, the conceptual distinction between the two notions of expectation is referred to on page 32. To simplify matters in a first approach. MuUTH considers market models of the cobweb type and assumes that they are deterministic except for the supply relation, and he makes a most interesting comparison with other theories of economic expectation in the realm of cobweb models. The illustration in terms of cobweb models makes a point of contact with my own studies; see especially Ref. 30. The contact is tangential, and there is little or no overlapping between the problems under analysis. MuTH has explored the models with regard to economic-psychological ex- pectation, and economic-psychological vs. probabilistic expectation; my own interest has focused entirely on the rationale of probabilistic expectation, and in particular on the general rules for operating with probabilistic expectations. Professor FISHER comments that the coefficient of an expecta- tional variable is a meaningful parameter « only » in case there is no difference between the economic-psychological and the proba- bilistic expectation. I have here put « only » within quotation marks hecause I think the statement is somewhat too strong. Specifically oe Wold - pag. 57

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