Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Croissance optimales dans un modele macroeconomique / E. Malinvaud, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques Paris - France

Collection:: Economics Books

382 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 not open to doubt if, but only if, we are limiting ourselves to the physical point of view. But if human psychology is taken into account, this result does not remain valid. There are two reasons for this; I can give two examples. The first case is where the shape of the time preference curve implies a high preference for the future. In my book « Economie et intérét » in 1947 I studied a model in which the difference i-p between the rate of interest and the rate of growth of the primary income is negative, but nevertheless there is optimality in the paretian sense with an infinite horizon. My second example relates to the case where the utility functions are functions not only of consumption, but also of capital goods. If people want very much to possess capital goods, then there can be an optimal path with a negative difference i-p. My fifth point is that my Econometrica paper is only one study carrying forward things described in many preceding papers and I believe that I gave very precise consideration to the problem of the optimal path as long ago as 1947 in my book « Economie et inté- rét », that is fifteen years before the DEsrOUSSEAUX, PHELPS, JoAN ROBINSON, SWAN and Von WEIZSACKER studies which Professor KoorMANS mentioned. MALINVAUD In order to avoid the conclusion that no optimal program would exist, one has suggested that we drop the assumption of an infinite horizon. I cannot accept this point of view. Considering an infinite horizon often leads to interesting results concerning the non-opti- mality of programs which would appear as optimal if time were limited to some specific date, however far in the future this date may be. In such non-optimal programs, the economy is accumu- lating too much capital all the time and never take for consumption the full benefit of its high capital endowment. I see no way of discarding these programs if a finite horizon is adopted and if the terminal capital stock is taken as a constraint. 51 Malinvaud - pag. 82

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