Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

134 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 genous variables sufficiently far in the past that the effects of serial correlation are judged to be negligible over the time period involved. As shown in the preceding section, that time period will generally be shorter for endogenous variables in sectors lower-numbered than that in which the equation to be estimated appears than for endogenous variables in the same or higher-numbered sectors (¥). Clearly, other things being equal, the use of current and lagged exogenous variables is preferable to the use of lagged endogenous variables and the use of lagged endogenous variables from lower-numbered sec- tors is preferable to the use of endogenous variables with the same (or possibly even a slightly greater) lag from the same or higher-numbered sectors than that in which the equation to be estimated occurs. We shall suggest ways of modifying the use of the causal criterion to take account of this. For con- venience, we shall refer to all the eligible instrumental variables as predetermined and to all other variables as endogenous. Consider any particular endogenous variable in the equation to be estimated, other than the one explained by that equa- tion. That right-hand endogenous variable will be termed of zero causal order. Consider the structural equation (either in its original form or with all variables lagged) that explains that variable (). The variables other than the explained one appearing therein will be called of first causal order. Next, consider the structural equations explaining the first causal order endogenous variables (). All variables appearing in those equations will be called of second causal order with the (*) It will not have escaped the reader’s notice that very little guidance has been given as to the determination of the absolute magnitude of that time period. (°°) There must exist such an equation if the variable in question is normalized. As stated above, lack of such normalization is a form of in- complete specification. (*) Observe that endogenous variables appearing in the equation to be estimated other than the particular one with which we begin may be of positive causal order. This includes the endogenous variable to be explained by the equation to be estimated. ‘61 Fisher - pag. 50

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