Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

Chapter

Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. +51 unlikely that economy-wide models have entirely triangular A ma- trices, nobody can disagree, and what he says is even an understa- tement. On the other hand, if matrix A is made nontriangular the system becomes interdependent, and then we are confronted with the snag of a possible discrepancy between the two notions of ex- pected values for the current endogenous variables. In other words, one kind of approximation has been replaced by another, and the arguments at issue do not indicate which approximation is prefer able. This question brings me to the third point. (ii) Prof. FISHER’s considerations for or against CC- and ID- systems are on the whole of a theoretical nature. For my part 1 would instead make a plea for comparisons of an empirical nature. Above all, my plea is for studies where one and the same observa- tional material is used for the testing of fullfledged CC- and ID- models. Such comparative studies are not as yet in the picture, so it is as yet an open question which type of model performs best in actual applications. In this connection there is the important que- stion what criteria should be used when comparing and evaluating the performances. Predictive tests here come to the fore as the real touchstone for the validity of a model; that is, tests where the model as constructed on the basis of past experience is exploited to make forecasts about the unobserved future, and where in due course the forecasts are confronted with the actual developments FISHER Professor WoLD has long been interested in the question of what are desirable properties of econometric models. This is an interesting question and his work and his present comments cast considerable light on it. As an economist, however, I think one ought to be interested not so much in the question: « What are good properties of econometric models? » but rather in the question: « What are the properties which good econometric models have? » In other words, one does not design a model so that it will have desirable [6] Fisher - pag. 67

Access restriction

Copyright

fullscreen: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Monograph

Chapter

Table of contents

Download

Monograph

Chapter

This page

Image fragment

Citation links

Citation recommendation