Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

452 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - IR properties: one does not design a model in order that it should have minimum delay; one does not design a model so that it will be an eo 1pso predictor. One designs a model so that it represents someth- ing that one believes to be true about the real world. After the model has been designed, and not before, one asks: What properties does it have? And what properties can I give the estimates of the model by using different estimating techniques? Now, indeed, there are always several ways in which a given real phenomenon can be represented in a model. Given two of these which we believe to be equally valid in terms of economic theory, we would of course choose the one which had better properties in terms of forecasting or in terms of the properties which the estimat- ion techniques appropriate to the model will have. Frequently, how- ever, that is not in fact the primary question. In general, we are not indifferent between two representations and the choice between models does not come on the question: « Will one be recursive and the other simultaneous? » The crucial question is rather that of which model represents what we believe to be true about the real world and which model and estimation technique is appropriate to the use which we intend to make of the results. THEIL A question of clarification. Do you intend to split up a large equation system into subsystems and construct principal components of the predetermined variables in each subsystem? FISHER Professor THEIL wishes to know whether I recommend splitting up a large equation system into subsystems and constructing prin- cipal components of the predetermined variables in each subsystem. This is not what I recommend, although similar procedures have in 61 Fisher - pag. 68

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