Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

£54 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 28 FISHER I would generally concur with Professor HAAVELMO’s summary of the situation. If, in fact, there are a lot of exogenous variables which vary a great deal as compared with the disturbances, then reasonably good estimates can be obtained — although I would not agree that refined methods are not called for. In my paper I pointed out that such situations are likely to be very rare in the estimation of economy-wide econometric models. In such cases, I tried to show that one could improve the results substantially by paying attention to the causal structure of the model rather than by incau- tiously applying techniques designed for the ideal situation. FRISCH I am afraid that what I am going to say will be considered perhaps as black heresy, and if I am saying it, I hope you will understand that, when I voice this opinion, if I say it in a very outspoken way, it is not because of a feeling of unfriendliness to- wards members of our fraternity, it is merely to save time that I am putting it in an extreme way. Looking upon the problem of estimation in economy-wide mo- dels, I like to adopt the view-point of an economist who is called upon to give his advice to politicians. And if I look upon the matter in this way, I have an uncomfortable feeling that, in statistics, we are too frequently carried away by the terminology we use. You may say that terminology doesn’t mean very much, you can call a thing a straw hat, and use the concept in a precise way in your logical deductions. It is not so dangerons to call it a straw hat, because then everybody will understand that this is just a sort of numbering of your concepts. But if you use other words which in every day life have had a certain connotation, you may be obsessed by this connotation and, as I say, be carried awav through your terminology. 16] Fisher - pag. 70

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