Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

456 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - +} cause if you say that, everybody would have understood that you are Just using the term in a technical sense. But if you say « un- biased » people can not become aware that you are fooling with words. It is probably hopeless to suggest a change of terminology, but I feel it would have been better if you had used these words «not immoral » instead of « unbiased ». Next with regard to « con- sistency ». Take a person who is not able to carry on a « consistent » discussion and a consistent way of using his logic. You would not respect him very much. About his conclusions you would probably say « This is a fallacy » I would rather have preferred that you use the terminology « not fallacious » instead of « consistent » because then again people would have understood that you are really just playing with words. I would seriously suggest that we change ter- minology to something which is neutral and just say precisely what we mean. Instead of « unbiased » I would prefer to say « expec- tationally hitting » because what is involved, is simply that the expectation of the estimate is equal to the thing which we estimate. Instead of « consistent », I would say « targetly converging » in the stochastic sense, because that’s what we mean. It may be « con- verging asymptotically » i.e. it may be « targetly converging » in the limit when the number of observations becomes great. « Unbiasedness » or, as I would like to call it, « expectationally hittingness » may not really be the property in which we are inte- rested. Take a firm that is selling shoes: women’s shoes and men’s shoes. The owner of the firm will want very much that a random customer can be satisfied. Now, there are two types of shoes: men’s shoes and women’s shoes. The « univers » has probably a bimodal distribution. If the owner were to make a guess about what shoe the next customer would ask for, he would be off the mark if he focussed his attention on the mathematical expectation as derived from that bimodal distribution. I would say that in this case « unbiassedness » is purposefully irrelevant. I don’t think that this discussion about terminology is aseless because many people are not able to protect themselves against risk of being dragged into false understanding and false va- 16] Fisher - pag. 72

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