Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. ta luation, which will lead away from what is useful, If you will allow me, I will pick out a few expressions in Prof. FISHER's pre- sentation, which exemplifies how one may be carried away by the words, I put it down while he was talking. He said that Wozn has shown that this particular estimate — it was ordinary least square if I remember correctly — « retains desirable properties » — well, how do you know what is desirable? And, even worse, later on in his presentation, Prof. FISHER said — and I also took this down — « retain all the desirable properties » — I think he spoke about a full information maximum likelyhood or something that approxi mated it. It was in this connection that he said « retain all the desirable properties n. The immediate question is: « desirable for what purpose? » — May I finally give a third example. Professor FISHER spoke about using lagged variables as instruments and advis- ed against this use for statistical reasons. Now, suppose I am in an underdeveloped country. And suppose I am giving advice to a po- litician who is up against the problem whether he should go in for education on birth control. In an underdeveloped country with a very heavy population increase and with all the implications which this means from the economic and social viewpoint, the problem is important and the politician is pondering very hard the foreseable effect; this case pertains, of course, essentially to lagged variables. Suppose I come along and say « Well, I must advise against such a policy because it would upset certain calculations of mine regarding some specific properties of my estimates ». As I see it, these properties of my estimates are purposefully irrelevant, In this case it is precisely the lag values one would need to explain demo- graphic development. Finally, if I may just have one minute, Approaching all these things from the viewpoint of society at large, extending over time. we are accustomed to fall back on time series to a large extent Sometimes we may use cross-section studies, but many economists and statisticians rely on time series that come from observation of what has happened in the past. Such series are, however, irrele- vant for a great number of the estimates of the equations that enter [6] Fisher - pag. 72

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