Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Dynamic structure and estimation in economy-wide econometric models / FranklinM. Fisher, Massachuetts Institute of Technology - Cambridge, Mass. - U.S.A.

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L'ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. Te places in my paper in which this appears rather close to the surface. In general, I have said that the choice is between « consistency > and « efficiency » and I usually take the direction of opting for con- sistency. However, I tried to point out in the paper that this choice rather depends on what one expects to do with the results after one has obtained them. On the other hand, detailed analysis of the dependency of estimators in economy-wide econometric models on the use that is to be made of the results is difficult and so far only in its infancy. It does seem likely that properties of estimators such as consistency, unbiasedness, efficiency, and so forth, are pro- perties which one believes are likely to be relevant in a rather wide class of decision problems. Now for that part of Professor FRISCH’s comments which deals with the use of persuasive definitions. While I am not out of sym- pathy with the argument that use of such terms as « unbiased », « consistency », and « instrument », may be misleading in that such words carry connotations from general application, I must say that I think Professor FRISCH’s remarks on this point are irrelevant as regards my paper. However unfortunate the use of such terms may be, there is a long and distinguished history of their use in this way and while it may be too bad that such usage has come about, if is rather late for me to do anything about it. I must, however, comment specifically on Professor FRISCH's discussion of my use of the word « instrument » since I am unable to tell whether he actually misunderstands me or whether this is just another example of the unfortunate use of a word with several connotations. « Instrument » in the theory of economic policy, where we owe much to Professor FRISCH, means a variable which can be controlled by a policy maker and which can be used to move toward those goals which the policy maker finds desirable. « In strument » as I have used it is short for « instrumental variable » as the context of my paper makes abundantly clear. In this sense, it means a variable which can be taken to be uncorrelated with the disturbances but whose movements influence the endogenous variables of the system. Such a variable is used as an instrument (6] Fisher - pag. 7°

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