Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Title:: Decision rules and simulation techniques in development programming / Henri Theil, Nederlandsche Economische Hoogeschool - Econometrisch Institut Rotterdam - Nederland

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D’ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L ANALYSE ECONOMETRIOUE ETC. 48, different degrees of uncertainty (*). The values of the standard deviations are of course on the high side when they are con- sidered as describing a distribution relating to population changes; but this is hardly relevant in the present connection, since the random elements of this study should be regarded as representing uncertainty in development problems in general. The autoregressive scheme (5.7) is started up with a value for vo — v, which is a random normal variable with zero mean and a variance equal to 2 times the variance of the e’s. It is easily verified that this is the variance of v,-v for any t when we assumed that the autoregressive scheme has been in operation since Adam and Eve. The b-value chosen is 17; in accordance with the remarks made at the end of Section 2. For the capital-income ratio (g) we take 3'/; years. The coefficient g of the preference function (3-7) is put equal to 0.1, which means that a change |x, - x,_,| in the savings ratio is considered ten times less serious than a discrepancy y, (between desired and realized log-change in per capita consumption) of the same size. It would go too far to mention all results for all countries in all years separately. One sample case is presented in Table 1. It shows that the savings ratio is increased from 10 to almost 139, in the first year, to almost 159, in the second year, and so on, after which the further increases tend to be- come smaller and smaller. In some years there are decreases rather than increases. After 50 years the savings ratio is close to 30%. In the first two years there is a decrease (between 1 and 2% ) in per capita consumption, witness the negative values *) Note that the ¢’s generated are identical for each triple (apart from an adjustment such that their standard deviations are 0.005, 0.01 and 0.02, respectively). That is, for each country i and each year t (where t, t=1, ..., 50) one single g is generated. This was done to guarantee a rserfect ceteris paribus situation for the three different standard deviations 4 Theil - pag. ~

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