Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Decision rules and simulation techniques in development programming / Henri Theil, Nederlandsche Economische Hoogeschool - Econometrisch Institut Rotterdam - Nederland

Collection:: Economics Books

182 PONTIFICIAE ACADEMIAE SCIENTIARVM SCRIPTA VARIA - 7 = of the first two elements of the second column. This is the natural consequence of the necessity to start the development by reducing consumption at the beginning. It is of course not the Law of the Medes and the Persians that the period of suc- cessive decreases should last two years, since the process is subject to random fluctuations. Table 2 gives a survey of results and reveals that 2 years is about the average period during which consumption decreases. When there is little random variability (0.=0.005) the individual periods of decline are concentrated closely around this average; but for larger standard deviations there is also more variability of the decline periods, as could be expected. The category « other cases » refers to those in which the period of decline is interrupted by one or more years during which per capita consumption increases rather than decreases; e. g., decreases in the first two years followed by an increase in the third and a decrease in the fourth year. The signs of changes in the fifth year and later have been disregarded; they are negative in some isolated cases for o.=o0.02. Table 1 shows further that in the first decade the total log- arithmic increase of per capita consumption is 0.1611, which corresponds to a percentage increase of about 17. In the second decade it is much larger: 0.6757 corresponding to a percentage increase of almost 100. These increases, too, are subject to random variability. A survey of the quartiles of decade growth rates is presented in Table 3. The results show a gradual increase of these quartiles over time. Of course, the increase is not so regular in every individual case! This is illustrated by Table I, which indicates that in that case the decade growth rate decreases in the third and fourth decade. For the set of all data generated it appears that different values of o, do not lead to much difference as far as the median growth rates are concerned, but they do lead to important differences in dis- persion. “21 Theil - pag. 18

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