Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1824422792

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-217476

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

Place of publication:: Amsterdam [u.a.]

Publisher:: North-Holland Publ. Co. [u.a.]

Year of publication:: 1965

Scope:: XLVII, 1259 S.; graph. Darst.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Title:: Decision rules and simulation techniques in development programming / Henri Theil, Nederlandsche Economische Hoogeschool - Econometrisch Institut Rotterdam - Nederland

Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D'ÉTUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETC. 497 This would be what I call the pre-programming attitude. To me the rate of increase in consumption is something that will come out of a programming analysis, which starts from much more basic data. Now only one more remark which is not as important as the two ârst I made; that is regarding the procedure of taking the rate of saving as an instrument in the political sense. I do not see how you can take the rate of saving as a political instrument because it 's not something on which the policy maker can decide. It is not one of his parameters of action. The saving rate is rather one of the consequences that will emerge from his decisions on a lot of other things. It is a consequence from his decision upon action and ran only be spoken about in the post-programming sense, not in a pre-programming ses.” | EONTIEF In presenting his method of sequential decision-making, Profes sor THEIL apparently commits the decision maker to use the same procedure in each stage of the process. But is this really necessary: Can one not view each step of the process as involving a decision over a limited interval of time at the end of which all the available ‘nformation, including the information concerning the correctness of previous anticipations, provides a new, essentially independent basis for the next decision? The possibility of modifying the deci- sion rule itself from one period of time to the next should not ye excluded. ISHER i have a question related to a simulation experiment not performed by Professor THEIL. One of the results of hi: —-- hat, in terms of the criterion function as a whole, .he approach does about ro ner cent better than what Professor Ty ““HEII 7 Theil - pag. 33

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