Deutsche Geschichte: Anhang. Bibliographie. Register

Migration and business cycles

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Multivolume work

Identifikator:: 1892063557

Document type:: Multivolume work

Author:: Lamprecht, Karl http://d-nb.info/gnd/118569015

Title:: Deutsche Geschichte

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Gaertner

Year of publication:: 1891-

Collection:: Economics Books

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Volume

Identifikator:: 189207334X

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-234945

Document type:: Volume

Author:: Lamprecht, Karl http://d-nb.info/gnd/118569015

Title:: Anhang. Bibliographie. Register

Volume count:: Bd. 12 = Schlußbd.

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Weidmann

Year of publication:: 1909

Scope:: VIII, 439 S.

Digitisation:: 2022

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Multivolume work

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Gesamtregister

Collection:: Economics Books

I= MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES puted composite indices of cyclical fluctuations in economic con- ditions by methods substantially similar to those used in the computation of the index for the United States just described. In choosing the constituent series for these “industrial composites,” as we shall designate them, we have selected series which are represen- tative of important factors in the economic activities of the given country, which show at least a fair degree of homogeneity in their cyclical fluctuations, and lastly, which are available, with minor exceptions, over the entire period from 1870 to 1913. The five series used for the United Kingdom are: wholesale prices, the value of exports, the tonnage of coal and of pig iron produced, and the per cent of unemployment among trade union members. For each series the cyclical fluctuations were computed by finding the percentage deviations from a seven-year moving average, smoothed to eliminate minor irregularities and to extend the average at the ends of the period. The results were then ex- pressed in multiples of the typical or standard deviation for the respective series, and an unweighted arithmetic average of these five series was computed to obtain the composite index. Inasmuch as the price, export, and production series will ordinarily have positive values when unemployment is low and negative values when unemployment is high, the cycles of the unemployment series were reversed in sign when combining them with the other series to form the composite, so that, for example, in a period of large unem- ployment the sign of the unemployment index is negative. The series used for the industrial composite for Germany are wholesale prices, the value of exports, the production of anthracite coal (Steinkohlen), and the production of pig iron. The methods of computation were similar to those used in preparing the com- posite index for the United Kingdom. The satisfactory data available for analyzing cyclical fluctuations of the economic conditions in Italy are relatively scant. The only series used in constructing the composite are the value of imports and the value of exports, hence this index may appropriately be designated as an index of Italian foreign trade. Inasmuch as the great bulk of coal used in Italian industries is imported and a large portion of some of the more important agricultural products, such as wine and olive oil, are exported, the index of foreign trade is probably a fairly good index of economic conditions in Italy, but it is obviously not as reliable as the composite indices for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany. L(2

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