Migration and business cycles

Bibliographic data

Monograph

Identifikator:: 834582015

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-77707

Document type:: Monograph

Title:: Régime des chambres de commerce

Place of publication:: Paris

Publisher:: Libr.-impr. réunies

Year of publication:: 1894

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (390 S)

Collection:: Economics Books

Usage license:: Get license information via the feedback formular.

SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS 7 It is evident that the peak in building employment does not coincide with the peak of contracts awarded or of permits granted, but occurs some three or four months later. Consequently, though they have a wider geographical scope and extend over a longer period of years than the available direct statistics of employment or unemployment, it does not appear desirable to utilize the con- tract or permit figures as indices of seasonal variation in employ- ment. In Fig. B, the curve for New York building and street labor is repeated, and curves are added to indicate the seasonal variation in Wisconsin building construction during the three years from 1922 to 1924, inclusive, and also employment as reported by con- tractors in twenty-six cities of the United States in 1922. (See footnotes to Table 57 for sources.) To obtain a composite estimate of seasonal fluctuations in building employment, weights of SIX, three, and one were assigned to the New York, Wisconsin, and 1922 series, respectively, and the result is plotted as Curve “h” in Fig. C of Chart 53. Our index of seasonal variation in employment on highway cons- truction (Curve “g”, Fig. C, Chart 53) is also admittedly only an estimate based upon fragmentary data. The statistics used cover the years 1922, 1923, and 1924, and include (1) the number of common laborers, by months, on highway projects receiving Federal aid in the fourteen states included in the New England, Middle Atlantic, and East North Central sections, and (2) employment on highways in Wisconsin. In computing the index of highway cons- truction these two series were weighted by the relative population of the states represented. Finally, a composite index of employment in construction (Curve “1” in Fig. C, Chart 53) was computed by combining the building and highway indices, assigning a weight of six to the building and one to the highway series. Obviously, this index of construction employment must be taken as a rough approximation. It indicates small activity in the first quarter of the year ; increasing employ- ment in the second quarter; maximum activity in the third quarter; and then a decline in October, November, and December. In some of the subsequent comparisons, the index for railway maintenance and the index for construction have been weighted by the estimated numbers employed in these occupations in 1909 and combined into an index of “Selected outdoor industries” (Curve “fof Fig. C, Chart 54). 2C

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