Migration and business cycles

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 1736236210

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-111544

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Jerome, Harry

Title:: Migration and business cycles

Place of publication:: New York

Publisher:: National Bureau of Economic Research

Year of publication:: 1926

Scope:: 256 S.

Digitisation:: 2020

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

Structure type:: Chapter

Title:: Chapter VIII. The influence of economic conditions in the countries of emigration

Collection:: Economics Books

: MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES a decrease. Thus, in 1881, 1882, 1887, 1888, 1903, 1910, and 1913, immigration from all these countries shows an increase, and in 1897 and 1908 a decrease. Also, in the depression of 1885 and likewise in 1889, immigration from all the selected countries but Russia de- clined; in 1893, a decline from all countries but Italy and Greece occurred, and from all but Greece in 1894. With the exception of the inflow from Greece, all these immigrant streams rose in 1899, and all rose in 1902 but that from Ireland. The tendency to uni- formity of movement may be summarized by noting that in twenty- one of the thirty-four years under consideration three-fourths or more of the curves show changes in the same direction. It is also noteworthy that in sixteen of these twenty-one years, an increase in immigration is preceded, to use a typical index, by an increase in pig iron production in the United States, or a decrease in immigration by a decrease in pig iron production, in the calendar year ending six months prior to the close of the given immigration year. In the post-war years from 1920 to 1924, inclusive, which are not shown on Charts 32 and 33, the conformity in the direction of year-to-year change was even more uniform, all the selected coun- tries showing a movement in the same direction, with the exception of Russia in 1920, Germany and Austria in 1922, Greece in 1923, and Russia and Austria-Hungary in 1924. Differences in Degree. It is not, of course, to be inferred that year-to-year changes in the number of immigrants, even when similar in direction for many countries, are necessarily closely similar in degree. For example, taking the severe depression of 1908 as the basis of comparison, the sharpest decline among the countries which contributed one hun- dred thousand or more immigrants in the year ending June 30, 1907, is found in the immigration from Hungary and Italy, countries from which immigration had been rapidly increasing. In terms of percentage decline in the year ending June 30, 1908, from the number for the preceding year, the declines were as follows: United King- dom, 18 per cent; Russia, 40; Austria, 43; Italy, 55; and Hungary, 56. Proportion to Total Immigration. Further indication of variances in the fluctuations of immigration from the several countries can be obtained from Charts 34 and 35, which portray the changes in the ratio of immigration from the 158

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