Study week on the econometric approach to development planning

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Monograph

Identifikator:: 885356659

URN:: urn:nbn:de:zbw-retromon-5912

Document type:: Monograph

Author:: Gaebel, Käthe http://d-nb.info/gnd/1023047020; Schulz, Max von http://d-nb.info/gnd/1033198951

Title:: Die Heimarbeit im Kriege

Place of publication:: Berlin

Publisher:: Verlag von Franz Vahlen

Year of publication:: 1917

Scope:: 1 Online-Ressource (210 Seiten)

Digitisation:: 2017

Collection:: Economics Books

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Document type:: Monograph

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Collection:: Economics Books

SEMAINE D’ETUDE SUR LE ROLE DE L’ANALYSE ECONOMETRIQUE ETc. 1049 ten year period, 1959-1969, enables us in any case to answer the two questions posed in the opening paragraph of this paper. Whichever set of factual assumptions concerning the base year situation one chooses to accept, one reaches the same conclusion that the « break even point » between the rates of the economic expansion of the two groups of countries could not be reached before the Underdeveloped Areas would raise their average annual growth rate to about five percent. To accelerate their present much slower pace, they would have to double the actual 1959 rate of investment in the very first vear and then raise it progressively from year to year. To make this possible the annual transfer of (productively invested) capital from Developed to Underdeveloped Areas would have to increase from $4 to around $15 or even $20 billion in the first year and then go up annually reaching the level of between $28 and $35 billion in the tenth year. An assessment of the feasibility of such an ambitious invest- ment program for the Underdeveloped countries supported by a massive capital inflow from the Developed countries lies out side the scope of this paper. The factual conclusion drawn from the numerical results of our computations has to be accepted, or rejected, in the light of the plausibility of the analytical approach and the reliability of the factual information on which they are based. Being fully conscious of the uncertain and even controversial nature of the statistical estimates, which have to be used in such aggregative analysis, I purposefully presented not one or two but a very large number of alternative projections reflecting a wide range of possible initial conditions. The simple analytical system developed for that purpose is constructed in such a way that with a minimum of computational efforts the spectrum of alternative projections can be expanded further through insertion in the appropriate computational formula of still other, different figures purporting to give a more correct assessment of the base year situation. Thus, for example, the estimate l13] Leontief - pag. I1

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