XIX 
THE OBSERVATIONAL METHOD 
OBSERVING APPEARANCES 
Judging by appearances plays a large part in all em 
ployment work, and yet, of all methods of estimating 
character, it is the most unreliable. Every language is full 
of proverbs to the effect that beauty is only skin deep, 
fine feathers do not make a fine bird, and handsome is as 
handsome does. That appearances must be relied on to 
some extent, nobody will deny. There are innumerable 
instances in daily life in which the only method open to 
us is to judge people by means of a fleeting impression. 
As long as not much is at stake in such judgments, we 
may indulge in them as far as we like without suffering 
any consequences more serious than an occasional blow 
to our self-esteem on discovering that our original impres 
sion has been totally wrong. Mistakes like these are 
easily forgotten by the ordinary optimistic human being. 
However, in the case of large organizations, where the 
process of estimating individuals involves very important 
stakes, the observational method is extremely dangerous 
and inadequate. The mistakes which such organizations 
make in their estimates cannot be forgotten but are au 
tomatically translated into an economic loss. 
Let us take some instances to illustrate this statement. 
Most people would probably not hesitate to assert that 
they can pick the healthy individuals of a group in the 
majority of cases—let us say nine times out of ten—by 
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