XIX

THE  OBSERVATIONAL  METHOD
OBSERVING  APPEARANCES
Judging  by  appearances  plays  a  large  part  in  all  employment ­
  work,  and  yet,  of  all  methods  of  estimating
character,  it  is  the  most  unreliable.  Every  language  is  full
of  proverbs  to  the  effect  that  beauty  is  only  skin  deep,
fine  feathers  do  not  make  a  fine  bird,  and  handsome  is  as
handsome  does.  That  appearances  must  be  relied  on  to
some  extent,  nobody  will  deny.  There  are  innumerable
instances  in  daily  life  in  which  the  only  method  open  to
us  is  to  judge  people  by  means  of  a  fleeting  impression.
As  long  as  not  much  is  at  stake  in  such  judgments,  we
may  indulge  in  them  as  far  as  we  like  without  suffering
any  consequences  more  serious  than  an  occasional  blow
to  our  self-esteem  on  discovering  that  our  original  impression ­
  has  been  totally  wrong.  Mistakes  like  these  are
easily  forgotten  by  the  ordinary  optimistic  human  being.
However,  in  the  case  of  large  organizations,  where  the
process  of  estimating  individuals  involves  very  important
stakes,  the  observational  method  is  extremely  dangerous
and  inadequate.  The  mistakes  which  such  organizations
make  in  their  estimates  cannot  be  forgotten  but  are  automatically ­
  translated  into  an  economic  loss.
Let  us  take  some  instances  to  illustrate  this  statement.
Most  people  would  probably  not  hesitate  to  assert  that
they  can  pick  the  healthy  individuals  of  a  group  in  the
majority  of  cases—let  us  say  nine  times  out  of  ten—by
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