EMPLOYMENT  PSYCHOLOGY

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means  of  mere  observation.  But  can  mere  observation
gauge  the  beat  of  a  man’s  pulse,  or  the  pressure  of  his
blood,  or  the  temperature  of  his  body?  Can  it  detect  any
one  of  the  hundred  and  one  ailments  which  may  afflict
an  individual  healthy  to  all  outward  appearances?  What
should  we  think  of  an  insurance  company  which  selected
its  risks  by  mere  observation,  or  of  an  army  which  selected
its  men  by  giving  them  only  the  “once  over”?  The
physical  examination,  with  its  thoroughness,  its  mechanical ­
  aids,  its  chemical  analysis,  is  a  standing  testimony
to  the  unreliability  of  observation.  To  guess  correctly
nine  times  out  of  ten  may  be  possible,  especially  to  those
who  are  gifted  with  the  knack.  However,  an  insurance
company  which  guessed  correctly  nine  times  out  of  ten
would  be  bankrupt  in  a  very  short  time.  And  an  army
which  made  only  one  mistake  in  ten  would  in  all  probability ­
  break  down  at  the  crucial  test.  Industries,  until
recently,  have  labored  along  under  the  economic  burden
which  their  mistakes  in  this  respect  imposed  on  them.
However,  there  are  now  signs  in  the  recognition  of  the  importance ­
  of  the  labor-turnover  problem  that  these  mistakes ­
  will  not  be  tolerated  much  longer.
The  phrase,  observational  method,  is  used  here  to  mean
making  an  estimate  of  an  individual  on  the  basis  of  a
cursory  scrutiny  of  his  general  appearance  and  of  those
actions  which  are  likely  to  appear  during  the  characteristic
short  employment  interview.  Naturally,  the  longer  an
observation  is  continued  the  more  things  about  an  individual ­
  it  can  include  and  the  more  reliable  the  resulting
judgment  will  be.  But,  even  prolonged  observations  are
not  necessarily  reliable,  and  it  often  happens  that,  after
having  known  friends  for  years,  we  find  that  we  have
not  really  known  them  at  all.  The  employment  interview