THE “ QUANTITY THEORY * 69
weekly wage, if his real earnings (reckoned in com-
modities and services) are unaltered, so that his wage
will buy the same collection of things as before, his
wage and his holding of currency must be doubled
when prices are doubled. From this it appears quite
plainly that the average holding of currency at any
time must normally equal in value a particular
collection of goods and services. It is only simple
arithmetic to infer that the aggregate holding of
currency, alias the ‘quantity of money,” must
normally equal in value a certain definite aggregate
of commodities and services.
This is now so well recognized that it has been
made the basis of prognostications of the future
which have been realized in practice. When we have
found that some rapidly depreciating currency,
though nominally immense, has worked out at a
ridiculously small sum in pounds or dollars, we have
said, “Of course this is an impossible situation ;
either the value of the currency will go up again or
more of it will be issued,” and we have turned out
right.
But while it is reasonable to assume that we should
expect the elasticity of the demand for currency to
be equal to unity, we should beware of accepting the
doctrine too readily. Great doubt is thrown on it
when we reflect that if it were universally true,
issuers of legal tender could go on buying goods and
services with new issues indefinitely. The process of
doubling the currency in, say, the first month, would
indeed gradually bring the purchasing power of the
unit down to one-half, but as the issuer at the
beginning would be buying very near old prices, and
only at the end at the new prices, he would have
acquired goods and services worth over three-quarters
of the value of the total of the old currency. By
another issue equal to the old currency he would