MIGRATION AND BUSINESS CYCLES
Through 1910 immigration and production are, on the whole, de-
clining, and emigration increasing. In 1911 production recovers
temporarily, declines again, and then begins a steady recovery;
immigration exhibits a clear depression, from which recovery begins
in September; while emigration shows a distinct boom, with a
decided decline in September. In 1912 and 1913 the inverse relation-
CHART 19
CycLicAL MOVEMENTS IN EMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, AND Pia
IrRoN PRODUCTION:
Three-month moving average
Unit= one standard deviation
li seam
EMIGRATION
+2.0 #
er
ee
21
-1.0} |
-20kc
“2.0 [aloe ee olaivoey SETA Molo WA Tal TelAofs | lA] slolo
Ep TT Tn rm 1914
«The numerical data for the immigration curve are in Appendix Table III; for the
emigration curve, in Table 25; and the data for the pig iron curve are computed from
Appendix Table VI. The immigration and pig iron curves represent deviations from
trends; the emigration curve, deviations from the mean for the period.
ship, though still evident, is less perfect. In 1912 both production
and immigration rise, but immigration suffers a setback at the close
of the year, while emigration after a mild decline in the first part
of the year rises toward the close. In 1913 production declines
steadily, immigration rises to a sharp but briefly maintained peak,
while emigration declines until about the end of the year. In 1914
immigration is low and emigration high during the first seven
months, after which, under war conditions, both decline.
108