Full text: Migration and business cycles

THE PRE-WAR QUARTER CENTURY 1 
cember, 1910. In both cases, we are dealing with the raw data 
uncorrected for trend or seasonal variation. It is obvious from 
this chart that during this period, in which the number of un- 
employed is estimated to have been, on the average, several hundred 
. E “i . . 
thousand greater than in December, 1910, the number, of arriving 
male aliens exceeded those leaving by nearly 400,000. 
The Pre-War Decline of 1913 and 1914. 
Prior to the outbreak of the Great War, employment had been 
on the decline continuously, aside from brief recovery movements, 
since the early part of 1913. On the other hand, during several 
months in 1913 immigration was unusually large; but it also began 
to decline sharply toward the end of 1913. A statement of the 
cumulative number of arrivals, and also of arrivals less departures, 
is given in Table 28, beginning in March, 1913, when the employ- 
TABLE 28—THE PRrE-WAR DECLINE oF 1913-1914 
Cumulative number of arrivals and departures since February, 1913s 
(Thousands) 
ALIEN ARRIVALS ALIEN ARRIVALS LESS DEPARTURES 
YEAR a 2 © Mars MALE CL 
ALE ' OTAL NON-IMMI- 
Sona PAI NON-IMMI- LOTAL BOTH [NA GRANTS GRANTS LESS Yorar x 
5 GRANTS SEXES EMIGRANTS ar SEXES 
LA" TEC sac 8 © BE EE FG H 
1913 - 
Mar. | 69.2 18.6 87.7 121.2 56.9 A 64.0 90.4 
Apr. 168.9 49.2 218.1 296.4 142 4 17: 159.8 220.0 
May 266.3 | 70.0 336.2 461.1 | 225.9 5.8 231.7 322.4 
June 391.1 | 86.5 477.6 659.6 334.6 —1.3 333.3 462.6 
July 485.8 | 98.2 584.0 814.2 410.3 —13.4 396.9 554.5 
Aug. | 570.4 | 109.0 679.4 956. | 477.6 —20.9 i 648.1 
Sept. 657.4 120.4 777.8071113.5 549.7 -—23.2 526.5 766.9 
Oct. 740.3 130.7 871.0 1266.6 611.1 -—33.1 578.0 865.3 
Nov. 805.8 138.5 944.3 1383.6 | 653.3 45.06 607.7 928.4 
Dec. 864.9 146.0 1010.9 1490.3 685.4 -—39.5 625.9 978.5 
1914 
Jan. 893.4 151.9 1045.3 1543.5 683.4 -—82.2 601.3 + 962.5 
Feb. 924.2 158.5 1082.7 1599.6 700.0 -89.2 610.7 983.8 
Mar. 9901.3 170.4 1161.7 1708.5 756.3 -—88.5 667.9 1064.0 
Apr. 1079.2 187.2 1266.3 1850.7 826.4 -—901.5 734.9 1156.0 
May 1149.0 200.9 1349.9 1977.6 878.8 —101.9 776.9 1225.0 
June 1189.9 209.9 1399.8 2062.6 891.1 —119.0 772.2 1231.9 
July 1222.8 217 4 1440.3 2134.7 902.9 —128.2 774.6 1249.0 
2Compiled from U. S. Bureau of Immigration and Naturalization, Immigration Bulletin (monthly). 
ment curve first shows a substantial decline, and continuing until 
the outbreak of the war. The first column gives the cumulative 
number of male “immigrants”; the second column, male ‘“non- 
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