Full text: Migration and business cycles

THE WAR AND POST-WAR PERIOD 150 
The depression of 1911, the long decline just before and in the 
early part of the war, the low ebb during the war, the recovery 
beginning in 1919 and gaining momentum in 1920, the sharp decline 
in 1921, and the subsequent recovery in 1923, modified doubtless 
by the quota restrictions—all show up clearly on this chart. 
Chart 23 furnishes the general picture of the war and post-war 
period. The details of the movement of migration from 1919 to 
1923 are set forth more clearly in subsequent paragraphs. 
TABLE 30.—CyCLES IN MALE IMMIGRATION: 1910-1024» 
Three-month moving average of index corrected for seasonal variation: 1910= 100 
YEAR Jan. | Fes. | Max, APR. | May| JUNE | Jovy | Ava. SEPT. | Ocr. Nov. Dec. 
1910 109.1/115.0/110. 5 107.1 96.8 193.5 96.8] 97.3| 96.9. 93.2 5.9 84.0 
19115 475.4) 70.5 68.0 465.3) 61.1 57.4 57.4] 59.7| 63.3 67.0) 73.4] 76.9 
1912 77.0|.74.9| 71.9; 73.0] 73.9 82.9] 95.4/110.6(119.2 121.5116.5/107.7 
1913. 99.9| 89.8 90.1] 90.1{118.7) 147.2(174.7|174.3|163.1 147.1/136.7/116.9 
1914 97.9[179.2| 77.9] 76.5] 69.0, 61.9] 54.1| 46.8] 35.6, 30.4 28.3 27.8 
1915 24.3(120.0[ 15.3] _14.2| 15.8" 14 5l.2%S od 1 96 9 27.1 26.7] 29.3 
1916 32.1 30.5 25.5) 19.4] 20.4] 120 «0 & 20 38.00 39.239.1 43.0 
1917 38.4] 28.7| 16.6] '10.0| 9.1 1 1 £68 7.9, 7.8 8.6 
1918  9.6/ 8.2 6.4 6.1 8.4 10.2 10.3 11.7 13.9 
1919° 16.2 14.7/.12.0/ . f9.6| 11.1] 11 2.0 ,26.6127.8"33.3| 41.4 
19201 1146.5(41.6| 33.5 29.7['37.3 £1.81 82.2 89.2 99.9 
1921  98.3| 77.6 19.7] 35.6 32.40 1 18.6 19.0| 19.9 
1922. 19.1//18.0| 17.4" 20.1] 23.8 32.3 33.3 35.7 
1023 43.5 53.2('6 © 66.1 640 ; 62.3 62.6 5 3 
19245 1°55. 5051.0|_ 45" 6] 43.7142 0) a 
sComputed from the data in Table II, Appendix. 
bFor the period subsequent to April, 1921, a special computation of the typical seasonal variation was 
made to allow for the change in the seasonal movement caused by the quota limit law. 
Employment and Production Data in Post-War Period. 
We have just noted that only certain elements in the migratory 
movement since the war have escaped material modification by 
non-economic forces. However, the statistical data concerning 
industrial conditions available for comparison are more nearly 
adequate than in any previous period. The years since the war 
have witnessed unusual activity in statistical compilation and 
analysis. New index numbers of employment, production, and the 
volume of trade have been developed; and while some of these have 
been extended back into earlier years, the data are most adequate 
for the period beginning with 1919. Also, we have in this period one 
severe depression period, affording an interesting basis for com- 
parison with migratory movements. 
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